Republican Primary debate tonight @ 8 PM ET

The CNN/Western Republican Leadership Conference GOP Primary debate in Las Vegas tonight will be the last for a while. You'll be able to watch it from the CNN website, starting at 8 pm ET (OCT 18). All eyes will be on Herman Cain, who's surged in the polls but come under increasing criticism over the math behind his 9-9-9 plan, and accusations that despite claiming to have a 'team of economists' who worked on it, the only one he would name not turned out to not be an economist at all. If you don't catch it, I'll have an analysis up post-debate




Update: Huntsman is boycotting the debate to protest Nevadas Jan 14. Primary date

Obama Surpasses Romney, is led by Cain

Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs

Obama now leads GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney 43% to 42%. It's close reversal of their positions several weeks ago, when Romney led Obama 44% to 42%. Both have, however, remained within the margin of error. Obamas bump can be attributed to his recent focus on jobs, as more Americans now trust the President to create jobs over Congress. The only GOP candidate who still beats Obama in a national poll is Herman Cain, who currently leads 43% to 41%. This position will likely evaporate once recent Criticism of Cain's 9-9-9 plan begins to sink in with voters. No other GOP candidate comes close to beating the President.

Rubio says he will decline potential VP invitation

I'm serious guys.

Tea Party darling Marco Rubio said he wouldn't join the 2012 GOP ticket as the VP.

"I'm not focused on that, I'm focused on my job right now. And the answer's probably going to be no -the answer's going to be no."

Of course, this does not in any way shape or form stop him from actually doing it. While he would be very likely to turn down an offer from Bachman or Palin, a 'serious' offer from Romney or maybe Perry would be hard to resist. As Chris Christie showed, even someone who's repeatedly declined in the past can be persuaded to at least consider the possibility of a run when the 'serious people' come knocking on your door. And I still believe that a Romney/Rubio ticket would be the armageddon-esque  nightmare-come-true for the Obama Campaign team. We'll wait and see.

Palin decides not to jump into 2012 Campaign

... But that shouldn't stop you from buying my book.

Sarah Palin will not run for president, which she declared in a statement through talk show host Mark Levin. Although she had little chance of winning the primary, the move is probably a boon for Rick Perry, who would have probably had a small percentage of his support siphoned off.

Palins support among conservatives has been falling for quite some time after they grew fed up with her unending 'tease' routine of 'maybe I will run maybe I won't, either case buy my newest book please'.

Perry Raises $17 million in Q3

Swaggerin' back into the race.

The flailing campaign of Rick Perry may have gotten new life breathed into it by a $17 million fundraising haul this quarter. That's certainly an impressive figure in the current environment, and may quiet critics long enough for Perry to get a second chance during the next debate. But he isn't going to win the Primary on fundraising alone: not only does he have to compete with Mitt Romney for the major bucks, but he's also got to stop Herman Cain from eating into his support from the conservative base in early state opinion polls.

POLL: Christie would of been ahead of Obama, Tied with Mitt

 Probably what made it so tempting for Christie to consider a run, despite the obstacles.

"Among Republican voters, Christie and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are tied at 17 percent each, followed by 12 percent for businessman Herman Cain, 10 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and no other candidate above 7 percent. 

...

In a 2012 presidential matchup, Christie gets 45 percent to President Obama's 42 percent. Christie won 87 - 5 percent among Republicans and 45 - 37 percent among independent voters, while Democrats backed Obama 86 - 8 percent.[... ] This survey shows Gov. Christie is walking away from the possibility – at least today – to be elected president of the United States"

   

Quinnipiac Poll

 

Chris Christie declines to run; I don't loose a weeks pay on my Bet

The party's over folks.

Chris Christie has (officially, this time) declined to run for President. While he has done this many times before, this time is a final "no". In recent weeks many of the 'serious' members of the GOP elite, including top strategists and donors, had encouraged Christie to run after seeing Perrys dismal performances during debates, among other things. When some of the smartest and most influential  people affiliated with the party tell you you could run for President and win, it could make anyone reconsider. But after a week of consideration, Christie (rightfully, in my opinion) decided against running. 

This leaves Mitt Romney as the definitive front runner. A Washington Post-ABC News Poll puts him back at 25%, with Perry tied with Herman Cain at 16%.

(If you're wondering about the bet, I had placed a weeks worth of my salary on an InTrade.com bet that Christie would not seek the nomination, to prove a point. A few days ago, Christie had an 26% chance of running on InTrade. After he dropped out, Romney surged from 47% to 59% probability of winning the nomination.)